The RBC Heritage is a Signature Event on the PGA Tour, offering a no-cut structure and a big purse ($20 million). Whether that’s a good way to follow the first major championship of the year? Tougher to say.
People have argued that playing the Zurich Classic would better fit the week after the Masters. They feel it would serve as a break from the pressure of competing in a major championship for the players. The fact that the RBC Heritage is now a signature event ramps up the pressure on players to attend this week with all of the money and FedEx Cup points at stake. Of course, some players may see a no-cut event with a big reward as the perfect follow-up to the pressure of trying to win at Augusta National Golf Club. Hilton Head Island is not a bad place to relax after a stressful week — and I know from personal experience. Even if I had trouble getting out of a few of the bunkers.
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The winner of the Masters, Scottie Scheffler, is still technically in the field for the RBC Heritage as I am writing this, but I am assuming he is going to withdraw with the birth of his first child coming any day. Scheffler amazed while winning his second green jacket and other players in the field surely hope Scheffler won’t be around for this one.
Harbour Town Golf Links is a course with a very sticky history. Players who can win or contend here tend to do well year after year. Davis Love III won five times here, while Stewart Cink captured three wins, with the third coming sixteen years after the second. Luke Donald finished runner-up five times but just couldn’t break through even when he was at the very top of his game. Is Patrick Cantlay turning into Luke Donald at Harbour Town? He has three top-three finishes in his last five starts here but hasn’t been able to clinch a win.
This week, my model will focus on strokes gained approach, strokes gained at Harbour Town Golf Links, strokes gained on shots from 150 to 175 yards, strokes gained from the sand, and one putt percentage. Driving distance is not a factor, as players will be using their irons and 3-woods off the tee to set up their second shots into the greens on most holes. If you put the ball on the wrong side of the fairway, you can block out your second shot into the green with tree trouble very easily.
Course information
Course: Harbour Town Golf Links — Hilton Head Island, South Carolina
Designed by: Pete Dye
Par: 71
Yardage: 7,213
Average green size: 3,700 square feet
Features: Harbour Town Golf Links has hosted the RBC Heritage every year that it has been played since 1969. The golf course features Celebration Bermuda and TifSports Bermuda on the tee boxes, 419 Bermuda on the fairways and rough, and TifSports Bermuda on the greens. The greens are smaller than average and demand players control their iron shots into the greens. The small greens are protected by bunkers and closely shaved run-off areas just off the back of some of the greens. Like a lot of coastal golf courses, Harbour Town Golf Links starts off playing through tight fairways lined on each side by trees before finishing by the shoreline where it is more open and affected by wind. Driving accuracy and positioning will be key for golfers this week.
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Past champions: Matt Fitzpatrick 2023, Jordan Spieth 2022, Stewart Cink (his 3rd win here) 2021, Webb Simpson 2020, CT Pan 2019. Davis Love III holds the record with five wins at the RBC Heritage, while Boo Weekley is the last to defend his title in 2008.
Betting slip
Odds are fromBetMGMand update live.
Patrick Cantlay (+1600) finished T22 at the Masters by gaining over 5.7 strokes from tee to green. He had been really struggling with his approach shots heading into Augusta National but gained over 3.6 strokes on approach. He has four top-seven finishes here in his last five tries, and he has gained more than 4 strokes on approach at Harbour Town three times.
Tommy Fleetwood (+2000) won in Dubai in January and has three top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour. He has gained over 5.7 strokes off the tee in his last two tournaments while gaining over 8.3 strokes on approach over that same time frame. He has two straight top-15 finishes here while gaining over four strokes combined on approach.
Will Zalatoris (+2800) was trending towards a win after knocking off all the rust at the Farmers Insurance Open. He finished inside the top five in each of his next two events, and then the putter went cold. He struggled with his putting in the wind on Friday and Saturday at the Masters but still managed a top-10 finish. He has only played here once, finishing 42nd, but he has the ideal iron game to contend here. I like him just a bit more than Cameron Young at the same odds.
Cameron Davis (+6600) is in the middle of a nice run of form. He has four top-21 finishes in his last six tournaments, with his only real hiccup being the missed cut at The Players Championship. He has three straight top-25s here, with the last two tournaments being top-seven finishes. He has gained 4.5 strokes combined on approach in his last two tournaments and is riding a hot putter.
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Taylor Moore (+7000) hasn’t missed a cut since the Open Championship in July 2023. He has three straight top-20 finishes and has gained over 12 strokes around the green combined in his last four tournaments. He has only had one bad day with his irons in his last three tournaments and it was Sunday at the Houston Open that kept him from winning. He finished T11 here last year gaining a ton of strokes with his putter.
DFS plays
Xander Schauffele ($10,800) has three straight top-eight finishes gaining strokes across the board. He finally had a bogey-free round at the Masters, and yet he couldn’t push himself into contention on the weekend. He may have figured out Harbour Town last year when he finished 4th while gaining over 7.4 strokes on approach. It will be tough to fade Schauffele on form and at this price.
Patrick Cantlay ($10,200) See above.
Tommy Fleetwood ($9,800) See above.
Matt Fitzpatrick ($9,600) is absolutely on fire with his putter. He has gained over 17 strokes putting in his last three tournaments combined. He won here last year on a golf course that has meant a lot to him since he visited Hilton Head Island with his family as a child. He lost strokes on approach in three out of four days in each of his last two tournaments. I want to back Fitzpatrick, but I think he’s not quite right going into this title defense.
Will Zalatoris ($9,000) See above.
Cameron Young ($8,700) followed up his 2nd-place finish at the Valspar with a T9 at the Masters. He couldn’t keep up the momentum after posting some early birdies in the beginning of his rounds at the Masters. You wouldn’t think his power game would be a good fit for this course, but he does have a T3 here in 2022. He struggled here last year due to his losing over 3.3 strokes with his short game. He comes into this week not particularly sharp around the green. I would caution against going all in on Young, even at this inviting price.
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Shane Lowry ($8,500) lost over 7.2 strokes with his putter at the Masters. That’s his worst week since losing 6.8 at the RBC Heritage last year. The good news is he has three top-nine finishes here in the last five years and he gained over 6.4 strokes on approach at the Masters. I think he will bounce back with the putter and I’m not avoiding him at a place he can excel.
Brian Harman ($7,800) has struggled with his irons since his T2 at The Players Championship. He lost over 6.1 strokes on approach while missing the cut at the Masters. He has three top-nine finishes here in the last 10 years and loves the green areas as he has gained multiple strokes with his putter every trip here. I’m going to sprinkle him in some lineups hoping he can rekindle some form.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,600) just missed out on qualifying for the Masters. He has been excellent with his short game, gaining over 13 strokes combined in his last three tournaments. He has three straight top-33 finishes here, including a T19 last year. He’s a decent pivot off of some highly-owned guys in this range.
J.T. Poston ($7,600) hasn’t been nearly as good as he was in January due to a little bit of a drop-off in his iron play. He has lost strokes on approach in four out of his last five tournaments. He has three top-eight finishes here in the last five years, but he also missed the cut while losing over 10 strokes on approach in two of his last three trips. He is going to tempt a lot of people this week, but I feel like Davis and Moore are safer bets and they are cheaper.
Cameron Davis ($7,400) See above.
Taylor Moore ($7,400) See above.
Matthieu Pavon ($7,000) is very tempting at this price while coming off of a T12 at the Masters, but he struggled on approach over the weekend, losing over 2.6 strokes to the field. He hasn’t gained strokes to the field in a measured event since the Cognizant at the beginning of March. The fifth-place finish in Singapore and the way he played at Pebble Beach has me going back and forth about how he will like Harbour Town Golf Links. I think it’s a good fit if he is at his best with his irons, so I’m going to sprinkle him in a bit.
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Lucas Glover ($6,800) has gained strokes on approach in eight straight events and three straight top-25 finishes. He has gained over 9.4 strokes combined in his last two tournaments. He hasn’t had much success here, with his best finish being a top 18 in the last ten years.
Austin Eckroat ($6,400) missed the cut at the Masters but gained over 4 strokes on approach in four of his last five tournaments entering that week. He has struggled with his putter since his win, which has held back his game. I think he’s going to like this golf course.
Chandler Phillips ($6,000) might sneak into a few GPP lineups where I want to roster Xander and Cantlay this week. Phillips has the ability to dial in his irons as evidenced by gaining over 2.9 strokes on approach in four of his last five measured events.
One and done
Each week, we will pick in reverse order of the standings, and we can’t duplicate picks in the same week. Reference this spreadsheet tracking who we have used.
Standings
Brody Miller:$5,740,592.83
Hugh Kellenberger:$3,749,899.13
Dennis Esser: $2,396,619
Dennis Esser: Tommy Fleetwood won in Dubai earlier in the year and has three top-ten finishes in his last five tournaments. He still hasn’t won on the PGA Tour, but I have a feeling that could change this week.
Hugh Kellenberger: I’ll go with Patrick Cantlay, who has averaged a T7 in six appearances at Harbor Town. Coming off a miss of his usual backdoor top-10 at a major, he has some extra motivation.
Brody Miller: Tommy Fleetwood. He’s picking up right where he left off after a great year in 2023 — winning in Dubai, getting top 10s at Arnold Palmer and Valero before an awesome Sunday run to finish T3 at the Masters. He’s finished top 15 the last two years at Hilton Head. Maybe he finally gets his first PGA Tour win.
(Photo of Tommy Fleetwood: Jamie Squire / Getty Images)
